During this time, there is talk about buying up the recent three Pokémon sets at their new lows since they are a “great deal.” But in reality, even though it's nice to see sub-$200 booster boxes, this isn't the greatest move in the current environment. Most of that advice comes from people with large positions , and for them, it's probably a decent move. If it's just a temporary pullback, that strategy works out great for them; their massive volume ensures that when prices start going up again, that percentage increase really helps the bottom line. But for those of us with limited capital , we have to be choosier when deciding on what sets to get in on.
If you bought any set that came out from Pokémon in the last six years, you're up as long as you had a decent entry. But just because all prices have increased doesn't mean that all sets are created equal. You want to look for the solid sets in every era. Take, for example, the Sword & Shield era. Evolving Skies , which received multiple reprints, still has a staggering $2,200+ booster box price due to its incredible set value. Fusion Strike , which had its own reprints and controversy, still sits at almost a $1,000 booster box.
Even mid-tier sets drastically outperform the weakest links. Consider Lost Origin , which wasn't the best of the era, but decent with its top chase of the Giratina V alternate art and Aerodactyl at number two. Currently, its booster box is $700+ . At the bottom tier of the Sword & Shield era, you have sets like Vivid Voltage and Battle Styles for around a $300 booster box. Yes, that is still higher than they were initially and nothing to scoff at, but think of the opportunity cost compared to the other massive multipliers in the era.
The current environment isn't completely comparable, which is true. A few years ago, many booster boxes were sub-$100, and now $200 seems like a baseline . But just because all booster boxes have a new floor doesn't mean you have to settle for the lowest box price available. Even when looking back to the Scarlet & Violet era, there are better older booster boxes that are higher in price but overall offer a better set value at around a $300 box price versus the $200 price for the latest sets that will most likely still be printed for some time.
Or better yet, accumulate funds for one-shot sets that you really believe in, such as the 30th Celebrations , Ascended Heroes , etc. These releases are currently priced very high, but at a certain point when prices reach lower, reasonable levels, you could see a great entry point. Sure, it still might be priced high compared to the overall market, but for longevity's sake, it offers a much better road to performing higher returns over time.
Alternatively, just wait for the next market downturn . This can lead to missing out entirely, but it could also lead to the best opportunities to buy when everyone else is selling or panicking on overbought product. Sometimes this takes years of patience, but eventually, they do come. That's also not to knock Pitch Black , Chaos Rising , or Perfect Order . But these seem to be the weakest of the Mega Evolution era so far. Chaos Rising has the best top chase, but the Pitch Black and Perfect Order top chases seem lackluster, and their overall set value drops off pretty steeply afterwards.
As always, you are the ultimate decider for your portfolio . Just try to have a long-term perspective and don't get caught in the mix of hype news. Take the information, weigh the opportunity costs, and do what's best for your collection. For specific picks and more top-tier TCG content covering Pokémon and One Piece, join tcjournal.io for free.