It is a common objection among skeptical collectors: "The price shouldn't be this high because the supply is huge!" On the surface, it makes sense. If there are 1,000 copies of a high-end card, why is the price mooning? The reality is that if 900 of those cards are tucked away in long-term personal collections or bank vaults, they effectively don't exist. In any economy, the market price is defined strictly by the transactions occurring with the 100 cards currently for sale. By definition, the open market is the reality, regardless of how much "hidden" supply is sitting in closets.
Of course, the counter-argument is that this reality is fluid. At any moment, a "whale" or a group of collectors could decide to take profits, flooding the market with that hidden supply. If those 900 stored cards suddenly hit eBay, the price would adjust downward almost instantly to find a new equilibrium. This is the dilution risk every investor must weigh. However, in the current TCG climate, we are seeing the opposite: supply is being sucked out of the market faster than it is being replaced.
We see this playing out vividly in the One Piece TCG . Unlike veteran giants like Magic: The Gathering or Pokémon, One Piece has a much lower total print volume. But the real driver of its current price action isn't just the smaller print runs; it’s the fact that a massive chunk of the "hits" seem to be permanently off the market. One Piece fans aren't just speculators; they are die-hard followers of a 25+year-old story. When they pull a Manga Rare, it often goes straight into a "forever" binder.
The love for One Piece runs deep, and our hypothesis is that many of these grails may never return to the open market. When you combine the series' cultural impact with the current market data, the scarcity feels much more permanent than a typical "hype bubble." For these fans, the card represents a piece of the story, not just a line item in a portfolio. This emotional "diamond-handing" creates a supply floor that traditional financial models often fail to account for.
Look at the data for proof. It is common to see a card with a PSA 10 population of, say, 800 units, yet find only five or six listings on eBay at any given time. That is a 1% market availability. Even though the "verified" information tells us 800 gem-mint copies exist, the market only has access to a handful. Case and point: when demand for a "top 1%" card hits, but only 1% of the supply is available, the resulting price spikes are inevitable and often permanent.
This "supply vacuum" has created the massive price swings we’ve witnessed in recent months. For the savvy investor, the lesson is clear: don't just track the pop reports—track the liquidity . In a market where collectors are refusing to sell, the "true" price is whatever the next person is willing to pay to pry a card out of someone else's hands.
One Piece TCG: PSA 10 Market Liquidity Analysis (Current Dec. 2025 Data)
1. Manga Shanks (OP01-120)
PSA 10 Population: ~1,179 units
Active eBay Listings: < 15 units
Market Availability: ~1.3%
Status: Severely illiquid / High collector retention
2. Manga Luffy (OP05-119)
PSA 10 Population: ~927 units
Active eBay Listings: < 10 units
Market Availability: ~1.0%
Status: Critical scarcity / Primary "chase" lock-up
Key Takeaway for Investors: The "Total Population" (the number of cards graded) is significantly higher than the "Circulating Supply" (the number of cards actually for sale). This 1% Availability is the primary driver behind recent price volatility. When buyers outnumber the 1% of available listings, prices move upward aggressively regardless of how many cards are tucked away in private vaults.