Though there are many opportunities currently floating around the market, this Dewgong Illustration Rare looks like it oversold upon release and is starting to ascend back up. While we usually post low-population, highly scarce cards, it is incredibly important to make a pick that is readily accessible to the masses. Its affordability and strong underlying market momentum are exactly why this Dewgong is our TCJ Pick of the Week.
Let's look at the statistics driving this decision. Even though this card currently has a Near Mint available inventory of almost 900 listings on TCGplayer, the daily sales volume is exceptional at around 33 copies per day. After hitting a basement low of around $3.50, it has comfortably picked back up to between $4 and $5 and is on a clear upward trajectory. Note: we aren't looking for a quick flip here; we are looking at a 5+ year horizon for this pick to truly mature.
Contextualizing the overall set explains a lot of this card's current pricing. Coming from the set ME02 Phantasmal Flames , the value distribution is actually quite top-heavy. The chase is entirely focused on the Special Illustration Mega Charizard X, sitting at around $850 in NM raw value, which pushes the sealed product value the most. Second is the Mega Charizard X hyper rare around $330, and after that, the set's value drops aggressively to a $36 Mega Charizard X ultra rare. Because the booster box price is $400+ and almost entirely hinges on the Mega Charizards, it creates a massive price disparity for gorgeous illustration rares like this Dewgong.
When you break down the math, the disparity becomes even more glaring. Based on the $400+ booster box price, the single pack value sits around $10 per pack. Illustration rares boast a 1/9 pack pull ratio, meaning it would theoretically cost almost $90 to pull any illustration rare in this set. Right now, picking up two NM copies of this Dewgong provides infinitely better value than buying even a single booster pack, which statistically has a very low chance of yielding any return. Furthermore, when comparing this card to higher-priced IRs in the exact same set—like the Meowth IR at around $31 or the Piplup IR at around $17—a $4 buy-in for Dewgong doesn't seem so crazy.
Ultimately, it comes down to character and art appeal. Although it may not be in the top 10 of Pokémon popularity, Dewgong still has a loyal fanbase, especially as an original 151 Pokémon. Combine that generational nostalgia with this fresh, vibrant artwork and the historically low number of Dewgong variants in the Pokémon TCG as a whole, and this card proves to have great long-term potential as the perfect diamond in the rough. Make sure to be subscribed to see our next TCJ pick of the week, published every Friday morning at tcjournal.io !